Why are we all talking of 2050 or 2100 ? What about the earth and climate beyond 2100?
The ever desired GDP growth calls for reasons to grow - More food, more housing, more needs to fulfill etc.
At the beginning of the industrial revolution in eighteenth century, England was the front runner. Then US took over the command and was quickly followed by European nations.
Development in US was very fast in 20th century and almost all basic needs of food, shelter and clothing for the general citizens have been fulfilled by them. Same is the case with European nations as well.
As for the developing nations, they have many more mouths to feed and to create basic infrastructure for their masses to survive in a healthy environment.
Industrial revolution in India started only in the late 20th century.India, China and other developing countries are also moving on the same path as their western counterparts now. Earlier, they were apparently busy increasing their population either out of ignorance or sheer careless attitude.They will take another 40-50 years or may be little less to reach the same level of saturation for requirements of food,clothing and shelter, if they manage to control their population growth.
Once they are also in a position to make all these things available to their entire populations, for which they are also striving hard, their industrial growth and GDP growth will flatten.
Manufacturing and trading of products and services alone cannot sustain growth for everyone. Someone has to 'need' something to buy it and only then someone would 'make' it to sell. That leaves us with health care as the only other reason for growth of the world economy. But for how long?
For every peak there is a trough. Every lowest point of cycle comes to the top and then goes down to the bottom as a principle of science and of nature too.Recession is bound to visit again and continue as a principle of nature, unless there's something significantly more to achieve.
Now lets talk about the effects of our desire for constant GDP growth.
Global warming started since the beginning of industrial revolution itself when the so called 'developed nations' were busy racing for their industrial development and in this race were ripping apart all the available natural resources on earth for constructing their skyscrapers and running their industrial machinery.
In the process, they were also selling aspirations and dreams to the less fortunate citizens of developing nations. No one talked of Global warming then.Now,when the 'developing' nations have joined the race,there is lot of hue and cry for global warming and GHG emissions. Green Energy,sustainability,energy conservation and energy efficiency have become the buzz words today.
We must acknowledge that there is only a certain limit upto which efficiency can be increased and emissions can be reduced. If GDP has to keep growing,sustainability will be compromised because the natural resources are limited.Recently, at a session by renowned speaker Kath Williams (Former Vice Chair of US Green Building council), the speaker estimated that by 2050 there would be 5 times more population and 5 times more no. of buildings on the same area of available land.
So where is the world heading? Apparently the whole world is trying to reach the Himalayan peak. What after that? Another planet to exploit? No body knows.
Why are we all talking of 2050 or 2100 ? what about the earth and climate beyond 2100? Are we so myopic that we cannot think about the future of mother earth beyond that? Or are we too casual to think beyond our life spans? Is it not the time to start thinking beyond 2100 also. Some of us will definitely be left on earth to see the 22nd century.
As India's father of nation (Mahatma Gandhi) said , "There's enough on earth for everyone's need but not enough for everyone's greed", we must encourage restraint rather than trying to find ways and means to exploit resources to pamper our ever increasing needs. I strongly feel that we should all stop further torture and rape of mother earth and learn to live in limited resources, to leave something for our future generations.Self Discipline could be the key and answer to our ever increasing global concerns.
